Smaller Marginal Gains from Additional Wind Readings in a Held-Year Forecast

Abstract

One neighboring wind reading supplied most of the observed gain from using three. After selecting subsets within each input budget using 2014 validation data, we refitted the chosen models and tested 51,384 forecast origins in 2015. The first, second, and third neighboring inputs reduced equal-date mean absolute error by 0.006946, 0.002083, and 0.001216 m/s respectively. The last pointwise interval ended close to zero. Development validation had instead favored the own-only model across budgets, so the later ordering cannot be presented as a prospectively validated budget choice. The experiment measures a small, source-specific information tradeoff; it does not price sensor acquisition or establish an adaptive graph algorithm's performance.

Development-only subset selection followed by a chronological comparison of four neighboring-input budgets.

Original publication: October 31, 2026.