An Opportunity-Cost Subset under Correlated Offline Beliefs
Abstract
Correlated beliefs can make a retained subset look precise before direct observations support every candidate. Opportunity-cost evaluation should focus on consequential exclusions caused by that borrowing. Independent local checks and a defined second stage assess the complete retained object. Posterior confidence and a cheap initial subset do not establish the downstream action's realized loss. This focused synthesis develops an empirical comparison that preserves the terminal action, observation process, and total verification cost. Its proposed tests are prospective; no new simulation run, model-training result, or intervention effect is reported.
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