Neighborhood Breadth and Median Aggregation in a Beijing PM2.5 Withholding Study

Authors

  • Nathan Green Author
  • Jacob Johnston Author
  • Evan Anderson Author

Abstract

More observed stations did not produce the most accurate consensus estimate in this retrospective exercise. We withheld each Beijing station in turn at 15,718 later-period hours with complete measurements across twelve sites. Three neighbors selected using earlier correlations yielded an equal-day, equal-site mean absolute error of 12.74 micrograms/m3, compared with 15.81 for all eleven available neighbors. Median aggregation reduced error in the broad neighborhood but increased the observed error in the three-neighbor set. A factorial regression with week-clustered uncertainty retained this interaction. These findings concern controlled single-station withholding and do not establish performance during real network outages.

Exploratory public-data research draft. Human scientific and submission review remain pending.

Original publication: October 24, 2026.

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Published

2026-10-24

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): Inaugural Issue

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Copyright (c) 2026 Nathan Green, Jacob Johnston, Evan Anderson

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